Yes Energy News and Insights

HOW ARE SHELTER IN PLACE ORDERS IMPACTING LOAD AND DAY AHEAD PRICE ACROSS THE COUNTRY? - UPDATED March - may data

 

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, so does its influence on the power grid. In this updated edition to our previous blog post, we take a look at average real-time load for “pre-covid” months versus real-time load since shelter-in-place orders have been in effect alongside the day ahead price. The charts below focus on major cities in each ISO.

We’ve also included COVID-19 case data, to show associations between load and prices against the spread of the virus in each area.

In the chart to the right, as well as the excerpts that follow for each ISO, you can find a snapshot showing the percentage of each population that tested positive for COVID-19, how it changed over the time period, and how it compares against other cities and ISOs.

NEISO

Relative to other cities and ISO regions, New England saw an early onset of positive COVID-19 cases. This upward trend continued throughout April and May, leading to some of the highest COVID-positive percentages in the country by population.

Estimated percentages calculated based on data from: “COVID-19 United States Cases by County.” Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map.

Estimated percentages calculated based on data from:
“COVID-19 United States Cases by County.” Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map.

Boston

(Blue = “pre-covid” average / Orange = since shelter in place averages)

  • March load statistically lower post-COVID, min and max loads happened at the same time; price statistically lower post-COVID.

  • April load statistically lower post-COVID, min and max loads happened at the same time; price statistically lower post-COVID.

  • May load statistically lower post-COVID with a larger delta than prior months, min and max loads happened at the same time; price post-COVID was statistically lower. 

 

Greenwich

  • March load statistically lower post-COVID, min and max load happened at the same time of day; price statistically lower post-COVID.

  • April load statistically lower post-COVID with smaller average delta than March, min load occurred at the same time, max load occurred an hour earlier on average post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID but with a smaller average delta than March.

  • May load statistically lower post-COVID with larger average delta than March and April, min and max load happened at the same time of day; price statistically lower post-COVID with smaller average delta than March.

 

SPP

Within the major cities in SPP, Omaha experienced the earliest surge in March before the spread evened out across the four cities in April. However, by May, the caseload in Omaha had increased to roughly triple the percentage of the next highest-impacted city.

Estimated percentages calculated based on data from: “COVID-19 United States Cases by County.” Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map.

Estimated percentages calculated based on data from:
“COVID-19 United States Cases by County.” Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map.

Kansas City

  • March load statistically lower post-COVID, min load occurred at same time of day, max load happened two hours later on average; price statistically lower post-COVID.

  • April load statistically lower post-COVID with similar delta to March, min load happened an hour earlier, max load happened eight hours earlier on average post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID with a higher delta than March.

  • May load statistically lower post-COVID with similar min/max times and higher delta than March and April; price statistically lower post-COVID with smaller delta than April.

 

Oklahoma City

  • March load pre and post-COVID are similar, with similar min/max times; price statistically lower post-COVID.

  • April load statistically lower post-COVID, max load happened three hours earlier on average post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID with higher delta than March.

  • May load statistically lower post-COVID with higher delta than April, max load happened an hour later on average post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID with lower delta than April.

 

Omaha

  • March load statistically lower post-COVID, min/max load happened an hour later post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID. 

  • April load is lower for some hours but statistically identical for most hours, max load happened eight hours earlier on average post-COVID; price was statistically lower post-COVID with similar delta to March.

  • May load statistically lower post-COVID with highest delta of all three months, min/max load times were the same on average; price statistically lower post-COVID with similar delta to previous months.

 

Tulsa

  • March load statistically lower post-COVID, min load happened an hour later on average post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID.

  • April load was statistically lower post-COVID with similar delta to March, max load happened an hour later on average post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID with similar delta to March.

  • May load statistically lower post-COVID with higher delta than previous months, min/max load occurred at the same time on average; price statistically lower post-COVID with similar delta to previous months.

 

CAISO

An early hotspot for the coronavirus, San Francisco saw the third-highest percentage of COVID-positive population in March, behind only Boston and New York City. However, according to number of cases reported and by population percentage, both San Francisco and Los Angeles were able to keep the rate of infection lower than many other metro areas as time progressed. By May, L.A. and San Francisco ranked 14th and 16th respectively by COVID-positive population percentage.

Estimated percentages calculated based on data from: “COVID-19 United States Cases by County.” Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map.

Estimated percentages calculated based on data from:
“COVID-19 United States Cases by County.” Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map.

Los Angeles

  • March load statistically the same with identical min/max load times; price statistically lower for most hours post-COVID.

  • April load statistically lower post-COVID for most hours of the day, max load occurred an hour earlier on average post-COVID; price statistically lower or identical. 

  • May load mixed, with statistically lower loads for morning hours and higher load for evening hours, max load occurred two hours earlier on average post-COVID; price statistically lower or identical post-COVID.

 

San Francisco

  • March load statistically identical for most hours, min load happened an hour earlier on average post-COVID; price was mixed. 

  • April load statistically lower for most hours post-COVID, min/max load happened in the same hour on average; price was mixed.

  • May load statistically identical for most hours, max load happened an hour earlier on average post-COVID; price was mixed.

 

MISO

Covering a large geographic area, these MISO cities fell within the bottom two-thirds of all cities represented in March. By May, the COVID-positive population had increased across all five, with Detroit having the sixth-highest COVID-positive population percentage.

Estimated percentages calculated based on data from: “COVID-19 United States Cases by County.” Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map.

Estimated percentages calculated based on data from:
“COVID-19 United States Cases by County.” Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map.

Baton Rouge

  • March load mixed but with less pronounced morning and evening peaks, max load happened an hour earlier on average post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID.

  • April load statistically lower post-COVID, max load happened an hour later on average post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID with similar delta to March.

  • May load statistically lower post-COVID with higher delta than previous months; price statistically lower post-COVID with similar delta to previous months.

 

Detroit

  • March load statistically lower post-COVID, max load happened an hour later on average post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID.

  • April load statistically lower post-COVID with higher delta than March, max load happened two hours later post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID with similar delta to March.

  • May load statistically lower post-COVID with higher delta than March, min load happened an hour later on average post-COVID, max load happened four hours earlier post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID with similar delta to March and April.

 

Indianapolis

  • March load statistically lower post-COVID, max load happened an hour later on average post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID.

  • April load statistically lower post-COVID with higher delta than March, max load happened two hours later post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID with similar delta to March.

  • May load statistically lower post-COVID with higher delta than March, min load happened an hour later on average post-COVID, max load happened four hours earlier post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID with similar delta to March and April.

 

Minneapolis

  • March load statistically lower post-COVID; price was statistically lower post-COVID.

  • April load statistically lower post-COVID with higher delta than March, max load happened twelve hours later post-COVID; price was statistically lower post-COVID with similar delta to March.

  • May load statistically lower post-COVID with higher delta than March and April, max load happened one hour earlier post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID with similar delta to March and April.

 

St. Louis

  • March load statistically lower post-COVID, max load happened an hour later on average post-COVID; price was statistically lower post-COVID.

  • April load statistically lower post-COVID with higher delta than March, max load happened two hours later post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID with similar delta to March.

  • May load statistically lower post-COVID with higher delta than March, min load happened an hour later on average post-COVID, max load happened four hours earlier post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID with similar delta to March and April.

 

NYISO

As the epicenter of the pandemic in the United States, New York City had the highest percentage of COVID-positive population across the entire time period. Separated by roughly 150 miles, Albany managed a lower caseload, going from fifth-highest in March to tenth-highest in May.

Estimated percentages calculated based on data from: “COVID-19 United States Cases by County.” Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map.

Estimated percentages calculated based on data from:
“COVID-19 United States Cases by County.” Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map.

Albany

  • March load statistically lower post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID.

  • April load statistically lower post-COVID with smaller delta than March, min load happened an hour earlier on average post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID with similar delta to March.

  • May load statistically lower post-COVID for most hours with smaller delta than previous months, max load happened two hours earlier post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID with similar delta to March and April.

 

New York

  • March load statistically lower post-COVID, max load happened eight hours later on average post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID.

  • April load statistically lower post-COVID with higher delta than March, min load happened an hour later on average and max load happened nine hours later post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID with similar delta to March.

  • May load statistically lower post-COVID with higher delta than previous months, max load happened one hour later post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID with similar delta to March and April.

 

PJMISO

Of the PJMISO cities, only Chicago found itself in the top ten highest COVID-positive populations by percentage at the start of case recording in March By May, however, all three cities were in the top ten, with Philadelphia and Chicago falling in the top five.

Estimated percentages calculated based on data from: “COVID-19 United States Cases by County.” Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map.

Estimated percentages calculated based on data from:
“COVID-19 United States Cases by County.” Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map.

Chicago

  • March load statistically lower post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID.

  • April load statistically lower post-COVID with higher delta than March, max load happened nine hours later post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID with higher delta to March.

  • May load statistically lower post-COVID with higher delta than March, max load happened two hours earlier post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID with similar delta to March and April.

 

Philadelphia

  • March load statistically lower post-COVID, max load happened one hour earlier on average post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID.

  • April load statistically lower post-COVID with lower delta than March; price statistically lower post-COVID with higher delta than March.

  • May load statistically lower post-COVID with higher delta than April and similar delta to March, min load happened one hour later on average post-COVID, max load happened one hour later post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID with similar delta to March and April.

 

Washington DC

  • March load statistically lower post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID.

  • April load statistically lower post-COVID with similar delta to March; price statistically lower post-COVID with a higher delta than March.

  • May load statistically lower post-COVID with higher delta than previous months, max load happened three hours later post-COVID; price statistically lower post-COVID with a similar delta to March and April.

 

ERCOT

By May, ERCOT was the only ISO region where all of its representative cities fell in the lowest third of all cities on our list, measured by COVID-positive population percentage. Midland consistently showed the lowest percentage across the period, with Dallas and Houston alternating highest and second-highest positions in ERCOT.

Estimated percentages calculated based on data from: “COVID-19 United States Cases by County.” Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map.

Estimated percentages calculated based on data from:
“COVID-19 United States Cases by County.” Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map.

Dallas

  • March load statistically similar pre/post-COVID with a more gentle morning ramp but similar min/max load times; price also mixed pre/post-COVID.

  • April load statistically even more similar than March; price is mixed. 

  • May load statistically lower post-COVID for all hours; price statistically lower post-COVID.

 

Houston

  • March load statistically higher post-COVID, max peak time happened an hour earlier on average post-COVID; price statistically lower for most hours.

  • April load statistically higher post-COVID for most hours but with a smaller delta than March, min load happened an hour later on average post-COVID; price statistically lower for most hours with a higher delta than March.

  • May load statistically lower post-COVID for most hours, min/max load happened at earlier hours post-COVID; price statistically lower for all hours post-COVID.

 

Midland

  • March load statistically higher post-COVID, min load happened an hour earlier on average post-COVID; price was mixed.

  • April load statistically higher post-COVID for most hours but with a smaller delta than March, min load happened an hour later on average post-COVID; price was mixed.

  • May load statistically higher post-COVID but with a smaller delta than previous months, min load happened an hour later on average and max load happened an hour earlier on average post-COVID. Price statistically lower post-COVID.

 

What’s Next?

Within the last month, there have been significant changes to the pandemic landscape. Cities began loosening their stay-at-home restrictions and opening up businesses in varying degrees. As this blog goes to print, we’re seeing a noticeable escalation of COVID-19 cases in 32 out of 50 states, several of which are seeing the highest rates of new cases per day since the collection of COVID-19 data began.

For the next edition of our COVID-19 research blog series, we’ll take a look at what’s changed since the easing of shelter-in-place restrictions, and what happens when some of these cities might be forced to alter or even reverse reopening plans when faced with a resurgence of cases.