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Did you know Yes Energy (formerly TESLA Forecasting) provides forecasts in nearly 40 countries and we’ve been doing this for 30 years?
Today we delve into the causes of Ireland’s peak electricity demand and how customers using our demand forecasts were ready for record-breaking levels in the past few months.
Ireland’s electricity demand has skyrocketed because of several factors, including the need to meet the demand for commercial services and a rebound in transportation activity post-COVID.
However, the recent record demand levels in Ireland are explained largely by two factors: extremely cold weather and the rapid growth of data centers.
Let’s dive into these, and see how Yes Energy Demand Forecasts helped market participants anticipate these record-breaking loads with a mean absolute percentage error as low as one percent.
Cold Spells Spark Demand Spike
At the end of November, there was a cold spell with temperatures around 6°C (10.8°F) less than seasonal normal. On November 20, temperatures dropped below 0°C (32°F), and there was record-breaking energy demand for the island of 7052 MW.
The Yes Energy IE Total model is an aggregate of the Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland models. Our Yes Energy IE Total model had a 07:00 one-day-ahead mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.6%, and at peak demand, this percentage error was 1.19% – this is an absolute error of only 84 MW.
This record demand was then beaten again on November 27 when temps grew even colder, and demand peaked at 7131 MW.
Once again, the Yes Energy IE Total model proved highly accurate. It had a 07:00 one-day-ahead MAPE of 2.5% and 2.1% percentage error at the peak. On this day, the observed weather temperature was colder than the day-ahead forecast by up to 3°C in Dublin and up to 4°C in Belfast. This inaccurate weather forecast led to underforecasting for the Yes Energy IE Total model.
Last week, an arctic airmass affected the island, bringing freezing temperatures and snow. Temps consistently dropped below freezing throughout the Republic and Northern Ireland, breaking the record for Ireland peak electricity demand once again.
On Wednesday, January 8 at 17:45, demand for IE Total reached 7497 MW, which smashed the previous record by over 300 MW.
Our Yes Energy IE Total model had a one-day-ahead MAPE of only 0.95% for the day (this is a mean absolute error [MAE] of 60.6 MW). At the record peak, the model had a percentage error of just 1.16%.
The below chart shows the performance of our 07:00 one-day-ahead forecast for the week.
Source: Yes Energy Demand Forecasts
This cold spell has ended, which has caused Ireland peak electricity demand to return to more usual levels. Nevertheless, future cold spells could bring new record demand levels for Ireland later this year when coupled with the increasing energy demand from data centers.
Data Centers’ Impact on Loads
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Irish data centers in 2022 were estimated to have consumed 17% of the country’s electricity demand, almost equal to the consumption in all urban dwellings. There are 82 data centers currently in Ireland, with 14 under construction and planning approved for 40 more.
However, with AI applications rapidly penetrating the market, the IEA forecasts data centers will comprise 32% of Ireland's total electricity demand in 2026.
We’ve taken this prediction from the IEA into consideration in our long-term demand forecast for Ireland.
The graph below highlights the proportion of electricity demand data centers use in Ireland compared to the EU, US, and China, using totals from 2022 and the IEA’s forecast for 2026.
Data source: IEA Report Electricity 2024 - Analysis and forecast to 2026
We have captured this demand growth from data centers in both our short-term and long-term Yes Energy Demand Forecasts for Ireland.
Using Accurate Predictions for Better Decisions
Yes Energy’s Demand Forecasts use an econometric model constantly tuned by a team of data analysts. This makes them highly accurate, especially on unpredictable days. You can also access support from the analysts who manage the forecast to understand the why behind the forecast.
We provide additional tools, such as weather decomposition, similar-day comparison, and temperature sensitivity (+/- 7 degrees Celsius), which help you “customize” your energy demand forecast.
Our team makes this global forecasting data available for Europe, the Americas, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific.
About the author: Fionn McGennis is the primary analyst on both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland energy demand models. He has a deep insight and understanding of these markets, as well as over a year of experience working as a forecast analyst for Yes Energy.
