This market driver alert (MDA) investigates the slowdown in MISO North wind capacity additions, increasing load, outages, and Live Power transmission flows in MISO.
Wind capacity additions in the MISO North region (Minnesota, Iowa, North Dakota, and South Dakota), which account for about 73% of total MISO wind capacity, and a lack of transmission to transfer that generation to MISO Central have caused ballooning in real-time (RT) congestion costs the last three years (represented here as the basis difference between Indiana Hub [INHub] and Minnesota Hub [MINNHub]).
This year, there are signs that the Central to North congestion dynamic may be changing — a slowdown in wind capacity additions, an increase in MISO North load, and line outages are all drivers of this cool-off.
One particularly interesting trend is that the average negative INHub-to-MINNHub basis has gone up two times in the last twelve months and 2023 year to date.
Figure 1: 2018-2023 average positive, negative, and overall INHub-to-MINNHub basis, $/MWh
In our MDA, we investigate:
Top five RT constraints on July 26
Live Power transmission and generation data on July 26
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