Wind, Load, and Outages Have Changed MISO Central to North Congestion Dynamic

This market driver alert (MDA) investigates the slowdown in MISO North wind capacity additions, increasing load, outages, and Live Power transmission flows in MISO. 

Wind capacity additions in the MISO North region (Minnesota, Iowa, North Dakota, and South Dakota), which account for about 73% of total MISO wind capacity, and a lack of transmission to transfer that generation to MISO Central have caused ballooning in real-time (RT) congestion costs the last three years (represented here as the basis difference between Indiana Hub [INHub] and Minnesota Hub [MINNHub]).

This year, there are signs that the Central to North congestion dynamic may be changing — a slowdown in wind capacity additions, an increase in MISO North load, and line outages are all drivers of this cool-off.

One particularly interesting trend is that the average negative INHub-to-MINNHub basis has gone up two times in the last twelve months and 2023 year to date. 

Figure 1: 2018-2023 average positive, negative, and overall INHub-to-MINNHub basis, $/MWh

In our MDA, we investigate:

• Top five RT constraints on July 26
• Live Power transmission and generation data on July 26
• MISO North load
• Wind generation and capacity

Want to learn more about how these factors are shifting the tide in MISO? Read the full MDA here. 

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