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by Jason Atwood
In the evolving world of energy markets, accurate long-term energy price forecasts aren’t just a plus – they’re a necessity. As data centers proliferate, batteries abound, and coal plants retire, you need to understand how these changes will impact power availability, demand, and prices.
Whether you're planning for next year or 30 years, having reliable insights into energy prices is key. This is where EnCompass, powered by high-quality data and expert fact checks, comes into play.
Data: The Cornerstone of Reliable Forecasts
Accurate, validated data is the foundation for all long-term energy price forecasts and analyses.
As you plan, you need to model generation and transmission factors, including:
- Operating parameters,
- Fuel costs,
- Emission costs,
- Environmental policies, and
- Transmission topology.
You also need to consider inflation for a realistic long-term view.
At the heart of the EnCompass team lies a commitment to data excellence. We understand that accurate long-term energy price forecasts start with a deep understanding of what’s shaping the power markets. Our models incorporate robust generation and transmission data at the nodal and zonal level, plus factor in inflation rates.
But it's not just about collecting all this data – it's about understanding it. We have a lengthy list of information sources that our team of experts checks for accuracy, a feature that only professionals with decades of energy experience can provide.
Besides verifying the accuracy of the data, our experts also frequently update all the data to reflect the latest market conditions, so you can rest assured you’re getting better data and better delivery of that data.
Zonal Price Forecasting: The Long View
To help you comprehend market trends over the next 20 to 30 years, EnCompass offers robust zonal price forecasting.
Zonal price forecasting represents the clearing price for a particular region/zone. A zone could be an entire state, multiple states, or portions of states.
For every hour, our forecasts cover:
- Energy prices,
- Ancillary service prices, and
- Capacity prices.
Source: Yes Energy's EnCompass Long-Term Energy Price Forecast
We provide a single base case for our forecasts, and then you can take over and build scenarios that account for uncertainties such as varying load, natural gas prices, renewable energy penetration, and carbon pricing policies. Essentially, you can plan for any scenario you can imagine.
Use Cases for Zonal Price Forecasting
You can use our zonal forecasting for:
- Market intelligence to identify emerging trends and opportunities,
- Integrated resource planning to optimize your long-term resource mix,
- Portfolio analysis to evaluate the performance of your assets,
- Profitability valuation to assess the financial viability of generation projects, and
- Asset valuation to back up investment decisions with data-driven insights.
Nodal Price Forecasting: Granularity for the Near Term
While zonal price forecasting brings a very long-term perspective, you might need to zoom in your focus. If you need detailed price forecasts for the next one to five years, EnCompass delivers nodal price forecasting, which represents a price at each substation or bus on the grid.
With our software, you can predict prices at the bus/substation level and see transmission congestion at the circuit level. You can run an unlimited number of scenarios – using any factor that could impact your business.
Use Cases for Nodal Price Forecasting
Our bus-level forecasts provide the detail you need for:
- Generator siting and sizing to evaluate estimated profitability, basis differentials, and anticipated congestion.
- Hourly generator operations to anticipate operational and curtailment challenges and refine your bidding strategies.
- Transmission hedging to understand the impact of congestion on your revenue and develop effective risk management strategies.
Source: Yes Energy's EnCompass Long-Term Energy Price Forecasts
Horizons Advisory: Expert Guidance When You Need It
While you can run an unlimited amount of scenarios with EnCompass, some asset developers and managers prefer a turnkey solution. For these, we partner with Horizons Energy to offer the Horizons Advisory Service. This is a long-term energy price forecast on an hourly, zonal basis.
An off-the-shelf product, it provides value via forecasts through 2050 covering energy, fuel, capacity, renewable energy shadow price, emissions, and ancillary services across 78 zones in North America.
EnCompass: Empowering Your Energy Decisions
Whether you're a utility, asset developer, investor, or market analyst, EnCompass provides the insights you need to navigate the ever-changing energy landscape. With a powerful combination of data accuracy, team expertise, and scenario flexibility, EnCompass is your trusted partner for long-term energy price forecasts.
Let us help you unlock the power of data-driven decision-making. Contact us today to learn more or request a demo.
If you’re a power trader, stay tuned for a blog covering how EnCompass can enhance your operations.
About the author: Jason Atwood has experience in operations and engineering, generation and transmission planning, energy trading support, and market design. His work spans several energy sectors, including investor-owned utility, independent system operator, electric cooperative, and independent power producer. He is helping Yes Energy clients understand how our EnCompass solution can meet their needs.
