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In May 2024, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed rules that would require coal plants to retire by 2040 or capture 90% of their emissions by 2030. However, retired coal plants pose a unique set of challenges, from aging infrastructure to unused campuses.
Finding solutions for these plants will be an important part of the retirement process. For example, companies can redevelop retired coal plants to support local communities, helping replace lost jobs. They can then reuse existing infrastructure (including grid interconnection, substations, and water supply) for new projects such as industrial campuses or renewable energy projects.
Understanding current and upcoming coal plant retirements is the first step in supporting this transition. As part of that process, asset developers need the most up-to-date interconnection queue data to navigate generation and transmission changes near proposed power projects. Meanwhile, asset managers also need to understand those changes for their forward-looking power analyses.
Yes Energy®’s Infrastructure Insights Dataset tracks upcoming power generation, transmission, and geographic load projects in the US and Canada for these purposes.
Current Coal Plant Climate
Before we move into current and upcoming retirements, we must understand the landscape. Common questions about coal plants include the following:
- How much electricity in the US is generated by coal?
- What is the percentage of electricity generated by coal?
Historically, coal-fired power plants have been one way the power grid has been able to provide affordable, reliable, and consistent power to meet energy consumption needs. However, natural gas and renewables are shifting that landscape as we move toward cleaner sources of energy.
According to the US Energy Information (EIA), in 2023 about 4.18 trillion kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity were generated at US utility-scale electricity generation facilities. About 60% of this electricity came from fossil fuels.
Coal generated 75 billion kWh, or 16.2%, of that total electricity.
Projected Coal Plant Retirements
The EIA originally projected that 2.3 GW of coal-fired capacity in the US will retire in 2024 – a 62% decrease from 2023. However, with recent publications, industry experts are predicting this number will climb to almost 4 GW. On one hand, many states are retiring coal capacity to meet renewable energy or greenhouse gas reduction targets. On the other hand, a number of power plant operators are delaying retirements to maintain reserve capacity and ensure grid reliability during peak demand periods.
Coal retirements are projected to increase again in 2025, with operators currently expecting to retire 12.9 GW in the US. As the economic viability of coal plants decreases and regulatory pressure to reduce carbon emissions and meet climate goals increases, retirements will rise. Another contributing factor is the high cost of maintaining and upgrading old coal plants instead of transitioning to newer, more efficient forms of energy.
In the chart below, we’ve used Yes Energy’s Infrastructure Insights Dataset to map actual and announced coal plant retirements in megawatts (MW) for the US and Canada. As the demand for energy increases, many of these announced retirement may be pushed into later years.
Source: Yes Energy’s Infrastructure Insights
Coal Plant Retirements by Year
In the image below, we’ve used the Infrastructure Insights Dataset to pull key power market data from over 2,000 sources to map the number of actual and announced coal plant retirements in the US and Canada. Since current data is limited to announced retirements only, the chart appears to decline the farther we travel into the future.
Source: Yes Energy’s Infrastructure Insights
State Renewable Coal Retirement Goals Drive Change
State renewable goals are driving much of the coal retirement movement.
As of November 2022, 36 states had enacted a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) or renewable energy goal. RPSs (also referred to as renewable electricity standards [or RES]) are designed to increase the use of renewable energy sources for electricity generation.
Although the US doesn’t currently have a federal RPS, the Biden administration has set a target of 80% renewable energy generation by 2030 and 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035. As such, most states have implemented their own RPS programs. To see how this plays out across the US, we’ve included maps below.
Coal Plant Retirements by State
Although coal-fired generation has decreased nationwide, some states in the Midwest and South still rely heavily on coal for power generation. West Virginia currently leads the list of coal-dependent states.
When it comes to coal plant retirements, Indiana has the highest number of upcoming retirements as well as the highest megawatts (see images below).
Source: Yes Energy’s Infrastructure Insights
Texas Coal Plant Retirements
Interestingly, Texas is not at the top of the coal plant retirement list. Since 2012, seven coal plants have been decommissioned, with another four scheduled to retire before 2030. By the end of the decade, nearly one-third of Texas’ coal plants are scheduled to be retired.
As coal plant retirement continues across the US, we anticipate improved air quality, reduced carbon dioxide emissions, and more sustainable energy as clean energy sources replace coal.
Source: Yes Energy’s Infrastructure Insights
US Coal Plant Retirements Delays
As we continue this transition, some coal plant retirements are being delayed due to concerns about grid reliability. Certain coal plant retirements could cause reliability issues during extreme weather events or peak demand periods. For example, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) has requested extensions for several coal plants to ensure they can support the grid during critical periods.
Other delays stem from upcoming generation needs. In Kansas, for example, a new electric vehicle (EV) battery factory will need 200-250 MWs – roughly the amount of power required for a small city. As a result, the state is delaying the retirement of a coal plant to ensure that the facility will have enough power.
New data centers requiring significant energy consumption around the clock are another major cause of these coal plant retirement delays.
Let Grid Infrastructure Insights Power Your Intelligence
Whether you’re an asset developer, manager, trader, or transmission planner or analyst in power markets, you need the most up-to-date information around the trajectory of strategic plants and transmission lines. Yes Energy’s Infrastructure Insights Dataset tracks that data for you so you don’t have to.
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About the Author: Laura Fletcher is on the Yes Energy product team as an associate product manager. Prior to joining the team, Laura studied environmental engineering at Georgia Tech. She started working with energy data as a college intern and she has worked on various consulting projects, annual market forecasts, client relations, and database management.
