Explore New Solutions for Short and Long-Term Traders to Improve Energy Market Forecasts

You need to quickly understand the pricing of over 20,000 power market nodes. Your forecasting models are swinging back and forth with each new weather forecast. You have to make a million-dollar decision before you’ve even had your coffee.

You face continuous pressure to look further ahead to understand what’s driving pricing. That’s why we’re bringing energy traders new tools to help increase efficiency and enhance the reliability of energy market forecasts. 

A Solution for Long-Term Traders: New Builds Dataset

If you’re trading financial transmission rights, long-term contracts, or next-day nodal power, you need a comprehensive view of what projects are coming online or offline and how new builds will impact the grid. Gathering that information manually can be time-consuming and resource-intensive. 

There’s an easier option.  

Our New Builds Dataset is a deep, thoroughly researched database of all energy infrastructure projects in North America.

The dataset compiles new project data procured from more than 2,000 sources including:

• 7,000 generation projects
• 11,000 transmission projects
• 1,500 data center and crypto mining projects
• 1,200 oil and gas infrastructure projects. 

All Proposed Pre-Construction New Build, All Types, 3 MW and up, Source: C Three Group, a part of Yes Energy 

It also details upcoming retirements across the generation space, so you can have a more accurate view of the grid. 

You can dive into the data even further to see key information for projects, including:

• Location
• Project type
• Ownership information
• Status/status history
• Plant/line characteristics and equipment information
• Timeline
• Permits
• PPA/off-take information for plants.

For example, you can see the contractor, interconnection queue ID, and contact information for an upcoming project in ERCOT. 

You can view this data in your API or download it as a CSV file. 

A Solution for Short or Long-Term Traders: TESLA Forecasting

In addition to understanding what power generation, transmission, and data center projects are coming online or retiring, it's essential to have an accurate, reliable forecast from trusted experts.  

Whether you are trading day-ahead or financial transmission rights, you need these quality load forecasts to make the best decisions. While you could employ load forecasts from independent system operators (ISOs), those are not always especially accurate, as seen during Winter Storm Heather in ERCOT. 

There’s a solution that’s been providing insights in the power markets for over 30 years. 

Generated with proprietary forecasting engines, TESLA Forecasting Solutions, recently acquired by Yes Energy, feed comprehensive weather, demographic, and calendar information into proprietary load forecast algorithms. The TESLA solution is an advanced regression model that uses detailed demand and weather observation history and incorporates the latest near-term data to respond to changing weather patterns, extreme weather events, and holidays that might impact energy demand. It’s an econometric model that allows you to know what to expect, even on less predictable days.

This is all backed by an expert team of seasoned analysts and engineers reviewing and maintaining every model, ensuring accurate and reliable forecasting.

With TESLA, you can be the first to know when weather events, holidays, or changing conditions will impact energy demand and get a leg up on the competition. You also get support from the analysts who manage the forecast to understand the why behind the forecast.

Alongside Yes Energy’s real-time and comprehensive historical power market data, TESLA allows for end-to-end market analysis in a single platform so you can be prepared for even the most “unpredictable” days.

TESLA Use Case for Short-Term Traders

TESLA offers both short-term load forecasts (15-day forecasts) and long-term load forecasts (two years). 

Real-time and bal-day traders can use TESLA’s load forecast to keep a pulse on real-time market conditions and set expectations for the remainder of the day. Day-ahead traders can use TESLA’s load forecast to know how tomorrow’s demand forecast compares to today and whether they need to adjust their strategy.

Here’s how you can use it. 

In addition to the primary blended TESLA forecast, you can display auxiliary load forecasts using weather data from private weather vendors Maxar (MDA) and DTN and public weather data from the National Weather Service alongside the public load forecast generated by each regional transmission organization (RTO). (See chart below.)

You can see another example below, this time of a like-day analysis with TESLA’s Comparable Days tool. (See graph below.) TESLA's Comparable Days tool selects five dates from the past five years of demand based on weather and calendar criteria. Gain more confidence in TESLA's load current demand forecast by comparing it to days with similar weather and calendar characteristics.

In addition, TESLA’s Temperature Sensitivity tool generates load forecast scenarios under the assumption that the temperature forecast is higher or lower than forecast by meteorologists. You can quantify the impact of temperature forecast error on the demand forecast. (See graph below.)

TESLA Use Case for Long-Term Traders

TESLA forecasting solutions can also help long-term traders to make more accurate predictions. You can aggregate weather-adjusted load by month using TESLA’s Weather Decomposition tool to track longer-term trends in base load. You can also define past months in terms of their deviation from normal weather. (See the chart below.)

In addition, you can use TESLA’s Weather Risk load scenario projection to assess the range of possibilities for load under typical, high-side, and low-side weather conditions. (See chart below.)

Conclusion

Whether you are a short or long-term trader, better energy market forecasting tools can help you make more informed decisions. Want to see exactly how TESLA forecasts or the New Builds Dataset can help your daily routine? Request a demo.