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by Ben Perry
As data centers expand and more come online, they’re shifting electricity use patterns. We delved into the data to see how they are driving electricity use – and what this might mean for the future.
Source: VisualCapitalist.com
Where Is the Ideal Spot to Site a Center?
Eight main factors (in no particular order) contribute to what determines the ideal locations for siting data centers.
- Access to high-speed fiber optic networks.
- Access to reliable and affordable electricity.
- Mild climates (require less power for climate control).
- Lower risk of natural disasters that could damage facilities or knock out power.
- Access to tax incentives.
- The availability of a large swath of land (data centers are big!).
- Low real estate prices.
- Proximity to customers.
Why the Sudden Data Center Load Growth?
There’s been steady growth in data centers for a long time, but in the past couple of years, the demand has skyrocketed. Why? As open-source AI models have become more widely available, the demand for computing power in data centers has grown exponentially.
Source: Chris Curry
How Can You Track Base Load Growth Over Time?
To effectively track year-over-year trends in base load, we should try to remove the effect of weather from metered load.
The Weather Decomposition Tool in Yes Energy’s Demand Forecasts strips out the effects of extreme weather on power demand. Seasonal weather that deviates from normals can cause changes in metered load up to 30%.
Source: Yes Energy’s Demand Forecasts showing the impact of weather on the 2024 ERCOT winter peak relative to what power demand would have been under seasonally normal weather conditions.
Data Center Alley
The Dominion Zone has been known as the biggest location for data center construction. Both metered and weather-adjusted load trends over the past 10 years show the impact of greater adoption and availability of open-source AI has had on data centers and their power consumption since 2021.
Before 2020, load grew 1-5% depending on the season. After 2020, the annual load growth in Dominion was over 20% and appears to be continuing that trend of growth with the latest data from March 2025.
After 2020, the annual load growth in Dominion was over 20%, and it appears to be continuing that growth trend based on the latest data from March 2025. This is largely due to new data center construction and the increased power requirements of AI models.
Source: Yes Energy’s Demand Forecasts showing the increased pace of load growth since 2020 – 5% before and then 22% after
Source: Yes Energy’s Demand Forecasts showing load growth trends updated through March 2025.
Less Well-Known Hotspots
Omaha, Nebraska, is not known for data centers in the way that the Northern Virginia suburbs are, but when we examine load growth in the Omaha Public Power District (OPPD) balancing authority of Southwest Power Pool (SPP), we see a proportionally similar pattern of growth to Dominion Energy.
Source: Yes Energy’s Demand Forecasts, showing increasing weather-adjusted electricity demand beginning in 2021
Source: Yes Energy’s Demand Forecasts, showing steady growth in power demand and then skyrocketing weather-adjusted electricity demand beginning in 2021
The March average year-over-year load shows the continued pattern of growth up through the most recent complete month.
What Locations Could Be Future Hotspots for Data Center Power Demand Growth?
We looked at Yes Energy’s Infrastructure Insights to see where data center projects are currently online versus where they are in development to come online in the next few years.
Source: Yes Energy’s Infrastructure Insights
Source: Yes Energy’s Infrastructure Insights
We can see from the graphs above that while the number of data centers in Virginia and Texas far exceed those in other states, the number of data centers is also rising in states such as Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Indiana, and Maryland.
When we look at base load growth over the last 10 years in the Local Resource Zone (LRZ) 6 of the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) that covers Indiana, we can see generally declining average load up until 2024 and 2025 where the trend turns up. Could this be the first signs of the kind of load growth we’ve seen in Dominion and OPPD?
Conclusion
Power demand from data centers has increased with the availability of AI models. Optimal location for data centers depend on a range of factors that change over time – tax incentives, for example, could expire and make a once attractive site much less optimal. Meanwhile, investment in an advanced high-speed, fiber-optic network could make a market with few centers the new data center alley.
Tracking load growth at the local level and following along with changes to data center development plans can help you be better prepared for the impact these have on zonal load and nodal prices.
If you want to learn more about data center load growth, Yes Energy Demand Forecasts are your go-to resource for managing risk and gaining a competitive edge with forecasts for electric load. These forecasts feed comprehensive weather variables and calendar information to proprietary algorithms. The solution is an advanced regression model that uses detailed demand and weather observation history and incorporates the latest near-term data to respond to changing weather patterns, extreme weather events, and holidays that might impact energy demand.
In addition, Yes Energy’s Infrastructure Insights is the deepest, most thoroughly researched database of all energy infrastructure projects in North America. This interconnection queue data gives you access to deep insights into the ever-changing status of planned generation, transmission and distribution, and load center (for example, industrial, data center, and bitcoin) facilities coming online or retiring across the US.
To learn more, talk to our team.
About the author: Ben Perry is the senior product manager focused on forecasting at Yes Energy. Ben brings 10+ years of experience as a power demand forecast analyst to the Yes Energy product team. He's now focused on applying that experience to steering the Yes Energy forecasting products to best serve the industry through the energy transition.
