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by Ben Perry and Skylyr Phillips
The Super Bowl is coming, but how will it impact US power demand? Last year, 123 million people tuned in, the largest audience on record.
Our forecast analysis team took a look at the pattern of power demand on Super Sunday across the past seven years in the PECO transmission zone of PJM.
While Sundays aren’t likely to have seasonal peak power demand or particularly high power prices, we found consistent irregular demand patterns on the day of the championship. But does that impact get stronger if the local team is playing in the game?
Is the Matchup a Factor on Power Demand?
Source: Yes Energy Demand Forecasts
Typically, the game means slightly higher demand in the hours leading up to kickoff as residential demand increases with food preparation for the game. Then after kickoff, demand is typically lower than a comparable Sunday as millions are watching the game and not consuming power as they normally would at the end of the weekend.
The visual above shows the weather-adjusted load shapes from the last seven super bowls in PECO, the transmission zone in the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection (PJM) that surrounds Philadelphia. We’ve made 2018 and 2023 dashed lines to make them stand out from the others. Those are the years that the Philadelphia Eagles played. You can see relative to the other years, demand is higher during the middle of the day and late afternoon and then drops off more sharply after kickoff between 6 and 7 p.m. ET.
As expected, in markets where a large proportion of consumers are fans of one of the participating teams, that impact increases.
A larger proportion of residences are cooking, causing even higher loads in the middle of the day before kickoff. Then after the game starts, demand takes a nosedive as the faithful disregard their other Sunday scary activities that might be using electricity and focus on the big game.
This means that the time of the peak load of the day has shifted from the late evening hours to the midafternoon.
What Can We Expect for This Year’s Game?
Source: Yes Energy Demand Forecasts
Above are three versions of load forecasts for the PECO transmission zone in PJM. The blue line treats this coming Sunday like any Sunday in February; it assumes there is no football impact on power demand. The red line assumes there is an effect, and that effect is consistent across all Super Bowls, regardless of which teams are playing. The yellow line separates out the years in which the Philadelphia team played.
Conclusion
Acknowledging the impact of the local fan favorite playing in the big game, we forecast a daily peak from 4 to 6 p m. ET. before the game begins and evening load lower than if Philadelphia were not playing. This is a trend we’ve observed across other regions, too. While a 3-4% demand shift might seem minor, subtle shifts can create trading opportunities if you pay attention to the details in the data.
Want to prepare for holidays and other hard-to-predict days? Yes Energy’s Demand Forecasts shine during times with extreme weather and other unusual events.
Generated with proprietary forecasting engines, Yes Energy Demand Forecasts feed comprehensive weather variables and calendar information to proprietary algorithms. The solution is an advanced regression model that uses detailed demand and weather observation history and incorporates the latest near-term data to respond to changing weather patterns, extreme weather events, and holidays that might impact energy demand.
This is all backed by an expert team of analysts and engineers reviewing and maintaining every model, ensuring the most accurate and reliable forecasting in the industry.
Learn more about leveraging our demand forecasts to anticipate market moves and Win the Day AheadTM.
About the author: Ben Perry is the senior product manager of forecasting at Yes Energy. Ben brings 10 years of experience as a power demand forecast analyst to the Yes Energy product team. He's now focused on applying that experience to steering the Yes Energy forecasting product roadmap to best serve the industry through the energy transition. Ben is also the reigning champion in his fantasy football league and has brought his many years of fantasy football management experience to bear here.
About the author: Skylyr Phillips is a forecast analysis manager at Yes Energy with over five years of experience in demand forecasting for North American power markets. Her team of analysts develops load forecasting solutions to help clients make informed decisions about energy trading and resource allocation. Outside of work, you can find Skylyr playing squash or spending time with her furry companion.
