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On the evening of June 5, 2025, real-time prices in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) spiked as high as $343/MWh with an hourly peak price of $162.56/MWh. That kind of volatility is not particularly unusual, but high wind output and moderate net load (load minus renewable generation) were both bearish price signals compared to June 4.
Traders and physical operators with access to Yes Energy’s Live Power grid monitoring solution had additional insight. Despite similar net-load levels, Live Power showed a drop of 2.5 GW in output from dispatchable generation compared to the day before.
Source: Yes Energy’s PowerSignals Time Series Analysis
Specifically, Live Power detected day-over-day drops in generation at four large gas-fired plants in the North Zone – Jack County, Handley, Panda Sherman, and Wise County.
Source: Yes Energy’s PowerSignals Time Series Analysis
On June 6, ERCOT issued an operations message for the sudden loss of 598 mW of generation at 2:25 a.m. the previous day, which led to an observable drop in the grid’s frequency.
Source: ERCOT’s operations messages
But Live Power customers already knew in real time that generation had suddenly dropped at Jack County and Wise County at the same time that frequency dropped below ERCOT’s standard of 60.00 Hz.
Source: Yes Energy’s PowerSignals Time Series Analysis
The likely unavailability of 1,250 mW of gas generation was an early bullish price signal for power market participants watching Live Power even before Panda Sherman ramped down and Handley failed to ramp up later in the day.
Want to learn more? Check out how our Live Power solution can give you a competitive advantage.
About the author: Isaac Lichlyter was a former day-ahead power trader for eight years in CAISO, ERCOT, and PJM. While trading, he used Yes Energy tools, including TESLA load forecasts, to diagnose the drivers behind price movement in the market, and now he is helping clients understand how our solutions can meet your needs.
