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by Cliff Rose
The US power grid is undergoing rapid transformation as part of the ongoing energy transition. AI-related data centers along with the electrification of transportation and buildings could drive substantial load growth in the coming years. We expect significant amounts of renewables, particularly solar, plus energy storage and natural gas to come online to meet this growing demand and replace aging US power grid infrastructure.
For traders with long-term horizons, such as financial transmission rights (FTR) and term traders, keeping informed about physical grid changes is critical. Much of this data is publicly available, sourced from Independent System Operator (ISO) interconnection queues, Regional Transmission Operators (RTO) planning documents, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, and several filings from state public utility commissions (PUC) and state siting boards. However, gathering and maintaining this data is difficult and onerous.
Let’s explore what changes to the grid you should watch if you’re trading power, plus a recent case study of the effects of the Atlas Power Data Center.
Substantial Generation and Load Changes Expected
As the energy transition continues, we predict substantial changes on the generation and load side of the grid over the next few years.
Companies have planned significant generation additions, with solar and energy storage dominating technology types. Wind additions will likely be fewer compared to recent years, and we expect some new natural gas to come online, particularly in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and regulated regions, to help meet load growth.
The chart below shows historic annual generation additions by fuel type alongside expected annual generation additions by fuel type.
Source: Yes Energy Infrastructure Insights Data
The California Independent System Operator (CAISO), the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), and ERCOT dominate where new generation will be built. The map below shows planned capacity expansion through 2030 by fuel type and ISO/RTO region.
Source: Yes Energy’s Infrastructure Insights data
We can see substantial load growth projected across the country, driven by AI-related data center growth; chip, battery, and solar panel manufacturing; and electrification of transport and buildings.
Again, the West and ERCOT have the most expected load growth. However, data-center-heavy pockets like Dominion Energy territory in Northern Virginia will see significant growth.
Contrasted with expected generation and load growth, transmission expansion likely will continue to be tepid, as announced transmission line miles decrease each year throughout the study period, as shown in the below figure.
Texas continues to dominate geographically in terms of announced transmission build-out.
Source: Yes Energy’s Infrastructure Insights data
Data Sources for Grid Changes
Information on upcoming grid changes is available through a variety of public sources, including ISO generation and transmission interconnection queues, RTO planning documents, and filings with regulatory agencies like the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). State public utility commissions and siting boards are also valuable. Additionally, company websites, utility 10-year site plans, and news aggregators can provide insights.
To help you avoid collating and validating all this information, Yes Energy’s Infrastructure Insights tool is a unified resource for aggregating, visualizing, and maintaining data regarding upcoming grid changes.
Source: Yes Energy’s Infrastructure Insights data
Impact on Power Traders
Short-term trading strategies, such as day-ahead and real-time trading, are generally not influenced by upcoming grid changes. However, long-term trading strategies, such as financial transmission rights (FTR) and term trading on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), require incorporating grid changes into analyses.
FTR traders, for example, use ISO-published power flow topologies to model future congestion, and precise information on upcoming transmission upgrades, new generators, or data center operations can give you an edge in nodal congestion trading.
For term traders, knowing about upcoming generation and load changes can improve the accuracy of your macro models for long-term trading at the zonal and hub levels.
A Recent Case Study: Atlas Power Data Center
The recent addition of the Atlas Power Data Center in Williston, North Dakota, provides an example of how grid changes can impact market pricing. Phase 1 of the Atlas Power Data Center, which came online in April 2022, consumes 200 MW. Two additional phases are expected, totaling over 700 MW of load.
This initial load has already strained the grid and increased local congestion.
The map below shows average congestion around Williston, North Dakota, from January 1, 2020, to March 31, 2022.
Meanwhile, the image below shows the significantly increased congestion around Williston, North Dakota, from April 1, 2022, to October 22, 2024.
Source: Yes Energy
This is because the additional load needed to power the Atlas Power Data Center exacerbated congestion on the Charlie to Creek to Waterford transmission line. Since April 1, 2022, this has been the most active and expensive constraint in SPP binding almost a quarter of all hours, shown in the chart below.
Conclusion
As the US power grid continues to rapidly evolve, staying informed on these shifts is essential for long-term traders aiming to optimize their strategies. Access to accurate, up-to-date information on upcoming grid changes can provide a significant advantage, particularly for FTR and term traders.
For power traders looking to gain deeper insights and make informed decisions, Yes Energy’s Infrastructure Insights dataset offers a streamlined, comprehensive view of projected changes across the power grid. With data from many trusted sources, this tool helps you save time and enhance the precision of your market analysis. Want to learn more? Request a demo.
About the author: Cliff Rose is a senior product manager at Yes Energy focused on building products that customers leverage wholesale power market data in their decision-making. He has 12 years of experience helping companies navigate power markets in both a consulting and software development capacity. Outside of work, you can find Cliff engaging in stereotypical Colorado activities such as skiing, running, and biking.
