In the white paper we summarize here, we’ll show you how Live Power® can help bridge the gap between historical power market events and upcoming forecasts. We’ll also discuss how our 60-second generation data can be used to generate forecasts that help both next-day traders and term traders improve their strategies.
Whether you're looking to build plant-level generation forecasts, zonal fuel mix forecasts, or market-wide price forecasts, Live Power® provides the historical and real-time data you need to make better decisions.
One of the simplest approaches to generation forecasting is to use a recent historical average.
Using the capacity factors table in our Live Power module of PowerSignals® allows you to do that easily.
Yes Energy®’s tools also allow you to vary your approach using capacity factors and filters. This gives you an easy way to access generator forecasts in your pricing models. Additional filtering allows you to aggregate up to zonal levels and fuel type levels if you're looking to forecast more macro trends like an energy price rather than localized congestion. You can also use these data points in a power flow model, thanks to Live Power’s mapping of generators to price nodes.
For a more nuanced generation forecast, you might introduce multiple scenarios into your models that allow you to break apart periods of high, low, and medium output, whereas the historical average blends all the different levels of output together.
Generation outages are one of the main factors that have to be accounted for in any type of historical average or scenario modeling forecasts. If a new outage starts that's not reflected in your lookback period, you’ll be making your forecast based on incorrect assumptions.
Whether you're trading in the bal-day markets or longer-term markets, Live Power can help you incorporate new outage information into your forecast as quickly as possible. You can also set up alerts, including multi-conditional alerts. For example, whenever generation crosses above or below a defined value, you have the ability to customize alerts around a change amount or percent.
If you’re a bal-day trader, time is of the essence and you want to incorporate this new information into your pricing models before the market catches up. For a next-day trader, getting one of these alerts might lead to a less automated process and a more manual investigation to see if you need to adjust any of the baseline or scenario modeling forecasts that you've previously created for longer-term outages.
For more short-term forecasting, Live Power data can help improve your forecast approach in two ways. In addition to forecasting curtailments at specific locations, Live Power's emphasis on coverage of renewable generation at the edges of markets can provide a leading indicator of regional wind forecast air for the bal-day or next-day markets.
If you’re looking to create a more sophisticated non-sequential training set for your forecasts, Yes Energy’s like day analysis module is your tool.
Download the full white paper to view both micro and macro forecasting analyses.
Whether you're looking to build historical average forecasts, conduct generator scenario analysis, or build sophisticated automated generation and price forecasts, Live Power provides the historical and real-time data that you need to gain better direction.