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Beginning July 1, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) is expecting an extended period of high temperatures, more typical for August than early July.
With the increasing penetration of renewable generation, high loads mean that CAISO experiences a more drastic daily ramp of net load, which is the amount of load that non-renewable generators must serve. Also known as the duck curve due to the shape it follows, this leaves CAISO highly dependent on battery storage resources as well as imports from neighboring balancing areas across the Western Energy Imbalance Market (WEIM).
Source: Yes Energy's PowerSignals® Time Series Analysis Dashboard
This reliance on regional imports means that when temperatures are high across the entire western region and not just California, CAISO faces additional challenges as neighboring regions make less power available for export.
How can Yes Energy help you prepare for high-load periods like this?
TESLA CAISO Load Forecasts for Summer 2024
Yes Energy's TESLA CAISO load forecast predicts demand in both the ISO footprint as well as the broader WEIM region. This forecast also goes 14 days into the future – in contrast to the ISO's seven-day time horizon.
Source: Yes Energy's PowerSignals Time Series Analysis Dashboard. The TESLA forecast is in green, and the ISO forecast is in orange.
Our forecast shows that combined load for CAISO and the EIM during the five-day period from July 8 to 12 is expected to be among the 15 highest load days since 2020.
Source: Yes Energy’s DataSignals® Cloud
What does that mean for generators, utilities, traders, and other participants in power markets?
Using Yes Energy's historic market data dashboard, we can see that on the other 10 highest load days, real-time (RT) market energy prices averaged $216 while day-ahead (DA) market prices averaged $177. It seems reasonable to expect similar volatility during the upcoming heatwave.
Source: Yes Energy's PowerSignals Time Series Analysis Dashboard
As you can see, not every similar load day saw $1,000 energy prices. However, all of the days with more muted price movement were days when the CAISO-only load peak was below 42 GW. The current TESLA load forecast for CAISO on the days in question is just above 42 GW.
Source: Yes Energy’s TESLA load forecasting software
Given the uncertainty around weather conditions more than three to five days in the future, it’s also valuable to know how dependent your load forecast is on temperature. TESLA's load forecast allows you to see how its model would react to different temperature assumptions – up to seven degrees above or below the current forecast values. This is crucial on days when load is at the edge of a risk zone.
Conclusion
Yes Energy's TESLA load forecasting solution helps you prepare for unpredictable market conditions like sustained heatwaves. Using advanced regression modeling with detailed demand data, weather observation history, and the latest near-term forecasts, TESLA's load forecasting software helps you understand all the factors that might impact energy demand and prices.
If you have any questions, our expert team of analysts and engineers review and maintain every model, ensuring accurate and reliable forecasting.
Plus, our historical data, found in PowerSignals, provides better direction for better decision-making.
Want to learn more about California energy demand forecasts amid widespread heatwaves? Talk to our team or request a demo.
About the Author: Isaac Lichlyter was a former day-ahead power trader for eight years in CAISO, ERCOT, and PJM. While trading, he used Yes Energy tools, including TESLA load forecasts, to diagnose the drivers behind price movement in the market, and now he is helping clients understand how our solutions can meet your needs.
