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West Texas is well known for extreme congestion events due to its more isolated position within the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid. In October 2024, we saw a unique version of this congestion in the form of the Odessa Switch to Yarborough constraint.
For customers with Live Power® grid monitoring data from Yes Energy, this ERCOT congestion represented a major trading opportunity.
Let’s dive into this.
Congestion on the Odehv-Yarbr Constraint
Congestion on the Odehv-Yarbr constraint started in mid-September but really ramped up in October.
Source: Constraint Profile in PowerSignals
An analysis of shift factors for this constraint shows that the highest positive shift factor (the node where prices will be most elevated) was at the Permian Basin gas plant.
Source: Constraint Summary in PowerSignals
Diving Deeper into the Constraint
Yes Energy’s constraint profile can help you understand the typical patterns of a constraint’s behavior, and in this case, we can see that the most significant congestion was heavily concentrated in overnight hours rather than load peak hours.
Source: Constraint Profile in PowerSignals
In this specific instance though, we can dive even deeper because Yes Energy’s Live Power grid-monitoring service includes real-time readings of the Permian Basin’s output. Despite the Odehv constraint elevating prices at Permian Basin, Live Power data shows that the Permian Basin generator was actually turning off overnight every day. This pattern of output became even more pronounced starting October 1 and continuing for at least four weeks.
Source: Time Series Analysis in PowerSignals
So why would a generator consistently turn off during hours when prices are consistently spiking?
There are many potential reasons including a generator managing its compliance with annual emissions limits; however, ERCOT didn’t publish any record of a generation outage for this period of time. Because actual generation data from ERCOT is delayed 60 days, traders without Live Power wouldn’t have had visibility into a major driver of congestion during this entire month-long period.
Conclusion
For a savvy power trader, a 10 MW point-to-point trade between the Odessa and Permian Basin nodes during the hours that Live Power showed Permian Basin turning off overnight would have netted close to $60,000 throughout October.
Source: Nodal Spread Profile in PowerSignals
Live Power delivers fastest-in-industry reporting of power generation and transmission flow data. It delivers high-accuracy, real-time grid data every 60 seconds from a network of proprietary, patented sensors. With superior coverage of the most relevant plant and transmission lines, Live Power captures today’s most important market dynamics and helps traders find opportunities.
Want to learn more about Live Power? Request a demo.
About the author: Isaac Lichlyter was a former day-ahead power trader for eight years in CAISO, ERCOT, and PJM. While trading, he used Yes Energy tools, including TESLA load forecasts, to diagnose the drivers behind price movement in the market, and now he is helping clients understand how our solutions can meet your needs.
